Chennai: A new study by the Indian Institute of Technology Madras highlights that renewable energy may take significantly longer than expected to dominate the global energy mix.
According to the research, under current growth trajectories, renewable energy is unlikely to surpass fossil fuels until the mid-2050s.
Only under highly aggressive scenarios – requiring an immediate doubling of global investments – could renewable realistically dominate by the late 2040s.
Published in the Transactions of the Indian National Academy of Engineering, the study emphasizes that achieving global climate targets set during COP 28 will demand substantial financial and infrastructural commitments.
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Specifically, the researchers estimate that spending on power grids and energy storage must increase by approximately 73% to effectively support the renewable energy transition.
The study, co-authored by Jitendra S. Sangwai and doctoral scholar Rajat Dehury, reveals a stark gap between global climate ambitions and current implementation.
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In contrast, fossil fuels continue to meet over 81% of global energy demand, underscoring the scale of transformation required.
Prof. Sangwai noted that the shift toward renewable energy is not just an environmental necessity but also an economic and geopolitical imperative. Despite the availability of technological solutions, global investments remain insufficient to accelerate renewable energy adoption at the required pace.
The research also sheds light on India’s complex position in the renewable energy landscape. As a rapidly growing economy, India must balance large-scale infrastructure demands with its ambitious goal of achieving 485 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030.
The study highlights that renewable energy expansion in developing economies will require careful coordination between policy, investment, and technological innovation.
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Furthermore, the study stresses that a multi-technology approach is essential to ensure a successful transition to renewable energy.
Given that fossil fuels are expected to remain a significant part of the global energy mix for the next two to three decades, especially in emerging markets, complementary solutions will be critical.
These include Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS), advanced energy storage technologies such as green hydrogen, and extensive modernization of smart grids.
The researchers argue that without accelerated policy reforms and significant increases in infrastructure funding, the global transition to renewable risks falling short of key climate targets in the coming decades.
